We are living in interesting times

The ancient Mayans of Central America believed that the world will end in December 2012. 

That is when the absolute end of the Mayan calendar is supposed to coincide with the winter solstice, unusual conjunctions of the stars, and ominous configurations of gods and events. Looking round at the Middle East at present it is possible to wonder if those Mayans didn’t know a thing or two; because everywhere we look, there is serious trouble brewing.   

The military prioritise incoming missile threats into the most urgent and the most dangerous. Applying that logic, it’s hard to know where to start with all the problems on the radar.  

First, the unrest in Egypt is obviously serious and looks like getting worse before it gets any better. Nonetheless, the longer term consequences of what is happening in Egypt could force dramatic changes. The great ‘Arab Spring’ has gone sour. The riots in Tahrir Square against the military government caused over forty dead and brought about the resignation of the cabinet. Egypt’s supposedly temporary military leadership has squandered the trust that many Egyptians placed in the army last February. From being the saviours of democracy and the power that deposed President Mubarak, the generals now find themselves the protestors’targets. 

However, the protestors’aims are muddled. For most, it's about fixing a deadline for the transition to a civilian government and president by April 2012. However, among the chaos and the bloodshed of the brutal crackdown in November two things stand out: first, the demonstrators want the military government out now; second, the religious extremists have cashed in on the unrest. 

The Muslim Brotherhood’s ‘Freedom and Justice Party’ is stirring the pot, knowing that their 37% win in the first round of elections makes them the likely winners overall, with the power to form a government, even in coalition. They see the unrest as a beneficial escalation in the political crisis and a real chance to gain power. A Muslim Brotherhood government intent on implementing Sharia law and turning Egypt into an Islamic theocracy is becoming an alarming possibility for Egypt’s Israeli neighbour.

Further east Iran’s erratic theocratic dictatorship raises ever-increasing worries. Teheran is definitely building a bomb. The IAEA's recent report provides clear evidence of the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. It is the most damning assessment to date from the nuclear watchdog, confirming Western intelligence claims. Despite the growing undercover war between Iran and the West, and the delays imposed by Mossad’s Stuxnet cyber attack on the uranium processing plants’computers as well as the selective assassination of key nuclear scientists, Iran will have a bomb next year.

That capability in the hands of the Ayatollahs raises all kinds of questions for the Middle East. Will Israel dare to strike at Iran’s nuclear sites to stop the bomb before it is too late, as Netanyahu is now openly threatening? What happens then? Will Iran fire missiles at Tel Aviv in retaliation? Does that mean some kind of suicidal nuclear war? And if Iran does get a nuclear capability, then will Saudi Arabia feel the need to have one too, as Riyadh has warned?

And what about Turkey? Turkey is surrounded by countries with nuclear programmes, including Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel, as well as Russia. A nuclear Turkey would then become a real possibility, because Ankara has openly said that if nukes proliferate in the region, then Turkey will be forced to arm itself too: “If Iran is not discouraged from having its own nuclear arsenal, it will be a very difficult decision for Turkey not to do the same . . .” according to a Turkish spokesman. Nuclear weapons research has long been underway under conditions of extreme secrecy in Turkey, and the AKP leadership knows that this will become public knowledge if the effort becomes more intense. By the end of next year we could be looking at a dangerous nuclear regional arms race in the Middle East.

But perhaps the most immediate political missile heading in Turkey’s –and by association the TRNC’s –direction is the growing civil war in Syria, just 60 miles to the east. Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan has warned President Assad that his days as Syrian leader were numbered "You can remain in power with tanks and cannons only up to a certain point. The day will come when you'll also leave," PM Erdogan told an Istanbul meeting last month. 

He is not alone. The Arab League has called events in Syria a "bloody repression" and insisted that Damascus stop the attacks on protestors, who are now openly fighting a guerrilla war against the Assad regime. The ‘Free Syrian Army’, formed by defecting soldiers, has formed its own Military Council and calls for a democratically elected government, officially marking the beginning of a civil war - just like Libya.

The Syrian problem is worrying Ankara. At a recent Arab-Turkish forum Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu openly discussed a strategy to topple Assad, while Arab countries called for a 50 km buffer-zone on the Syrian–Turkish border to protect civilians. But Assad dare not back down now. His regime has killed too many protestors to find a compromise deal. The Turkish military, knowing Syria’s ability to retaliate and cause trouble inside Turkey, (Syria provides sanctuary for significant numbers of the Kurdish terrorist PKK) is openly preparing for a border clash with Syria.

For Ankara, it gets even worse: Iran, theoretically Turkey's new regional ally, is also suspected of giving secret support to the PKK. Syria and Iran have realized that, as the political map of the Middle East changes, they both need each other. Iran needs Syria in order to keep Tehran’s proxy, Hisbollah, supported.  And Syrian needs Iran to keep Assad in power. Their sworn enemy, an increasingly isolated Israel, suddenly looks vulnerable with threats from every direction and is now frantically looking for new allies in South Cyprus and Greece. Suddenly, Turkey, from ‘having no problems with the neighbours’, is now beset with some very serious regional challenges.

To make things worse, all this unrest is against a backdrop of the growing threat of a Sunni-Shi’a clash inside Iraq, the continuing ulcer of the Afghan war, plus the biggest crisis in Europe since 1945, where the embattled Eurozone is dragging the global powers’eyes away from the problems of the Middle East.  Where will it end? No one knows –but things are looking increasingly unstable and dangerous in the Middle East.. 

The Mayans, however, were absolutely certain of the outcome: they had worked out with mathematical certainty that it is all due to go belly up by December 2012. Let’s all hope that the Mayans got it wrong.