If Cyprus turns into a goodbye to Turkey then it will be a blunder with both sides as losers

Two years ago the European Union took a momentous step when it decided to start accession negotiations with Turkey. No sooner was the decision taken than enemies of Turkish accession within Turkey and in the European Union got to work.

Since then, venomous attacks against Turkey’s accession have emanated from prominent politicians, most notably in France and Austria, while, in Turkey an irresponsible opposition has consistently accused the government of shortselling Turkey’s interests and undermining its sovereignty.

In consequence, the Turkish government has shown a lot less enthusiasm in its pursuit of further reforms and has allowed the rise of an anti-European tide that has eroded public support for the EU cause.

It failed to take a definite stance when article 301 of the penal code was used to prosecute statements allegedly insulting of a vaguely articulated ‘Turkishness’. Such views would otherwise be protected by the common understanding of freedom of expression. In one of the absurd cases brought to court, a novelist was tried because of views expressed by one of the protagonists in her latest novel.

On the EU side the convulsions caused by enlargement fatigue — the rejection of the EU Constitution by both France and the Netherlands — turned European publics against Turkish accession. The rising tide of Islamophobia and the difficulties encountered in the integration of Muslim communities into the mainstream of European societies were also projected onto Turkey’s accession prospects.

Last year the negotiations only started after a lengthy period of haggling. The main issue then, as today, was Turkey’s commitment to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels as part of its obligations under the customs union.

The EU demanded Turkey sign a protocol committing itself to this move. Turkey in return demanded that the EU honour its promises to end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots who voted overwhelmingly in favor of a UN plan to unify the island which the Greek Cypriots rejected.

Finally, in a rather theatrical finale to the ordeal, the clocks were stopped to allow the Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gül, waiting in Ankara for a last minute green light from the EU and arriving in Luxembourg only at midnight, to start the negoatiations as agreed on 3 October: Turkey had been put on probation, and the Commission would report to the Council by the end of this year whether there had been progress.

At the beginning of 2006 a ten-point proposal by Turkey on Cyprus fell on deaf ears. The Greek Cypriots would not move away from their maximalist positions and as a member of the Union could follow their single item agenda.

An unprecedented linking of the opening of ports to the fulfillment of political criteria by France, and objections by Greece and Cyprus have frozen the negotiation process since 12 June. The Turkish government, bracing itself for presidential and parliamentary elections in 2007, has hardened its position and vowed not to budge unless the EU honours its own promises to Turkish Cypriots as well.

As the date of the Council meeting approaches relations are rocky and the picture looks bleak. The Financial Times rang the alarm bells by warning against ‘sleepwalking to a train crash’.

The outstanding issues are still article 301 and the opening of the ports. Most observers expect the government to make a move on 301 by either taking it off the books altogether or changing its wording. On Cyprus the Finnish Presidency came up with a proposal that fell short of satisfying Turkish concerns and that the Greek Cypriots did not like because of the implied equality of the two communities in Cyprus.

The Commission issued its final warning in mid-November and gave Turkey until December 6 to take a step. It then decided to make its recommendation to the foreign ministers summit that precedes the Council. The foreign ministers have the option of suspending the negotiations that are already in hibernation or suspending some chapters directly linked to the customs union. Either a full suspension or an excessive number of chapters earmarked for suspension will likely trigger a strong reaction from Turkey.

In recent weeks six former Turkish foreign ministers (three of whom are committed pro-Europeans) agreed that perhaps Turkey should ask for time-out during 2007. Their reasoning was that the course the EU and Turkey are now on is too straining and the lack of trust between the parties may bring relations to a point of no return.

They also took note of the rising anti-European and anti-Western mood in the country and were concerned about a serious backlash if the EU was perceived to be consistently unfair to Turkey, punishing it unjustly.

A dual complacency in the EU and Turkey has let their relations drift so badly. The Europeans believe Turkey has no better option and therefore cannot opt out: the Turks believe that under existing conditions in the Middle East the EU cannot afford to alienate Turkey, let alone break relations with it.

Should this false sense of security continue the two sides may indeed find themselves licking their wounds after the train crash that EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn warned all parties of a long time ago.

That this would be not just a pity but a blunder of colossal proportions both for the EU and Turkey goes without saying.

Soli Ozel, a lecturer at Istanbul Bilgi University and an adviser to the chairman of TUSIAD, is a columnist for Sabah Daily and the editor of the Turkish edition of Foreign Policy magazine.